James L. Chestnut B.Ed., M.Sc., D.C., C.C.W.P.

The H1N1 issue has become so prevalent that I thought it appropriate to share some factual perspective. I realize that factual perspective is neither newsworthy nor popular when people are in the midst of a mob mentality of fear but I'm willing to risk unpopularity in order to encourage people to be guided by science, reason, and logic.

As you've heard me say so many times the key to finding the truth is asking the right questions. If we don't ask the right questions we will never get the right answers. Irrational fear usually comes from asking the wrong questions or failing to ask the right ones. As I often point out it is not what we don't know that poses the greatest danger, it is what we think we know that is false. We also must be aware of confounding factors creating self fulfilling prophecies. Sometimes fear is rational, sometimes it is not. Regardless, the most important thing is to ACCURATELY assess the threat and then identify an evidence-based, logical, reasonable, and RATIONAL response or course of action.

Let's start with the H1N1 flu virus itself. Clearly this flu virus is a reality and clearly it can lead to illness. The most important question is what kind of illness. The FACT is that the type of illness associated with this virus in over 99.9% of CASES is mild to moderate flu symptoms which include fever, nausea which can include vomiting, and of course general malaise. Not very pleasant to be sure but is this any different than the symptoms associated with the flu viruses that have been the source of the seasonal flu for the past 50 years? No. Although not every seasonal flu virus is associated with vomiting the truth is that vomiting is not considered serious. Seriously uncomfortable - yes, seriously risky in terms of death or severe complications - no.

But what about the deaths from H1N1? We all must admit and understand that even the thought of a child dying is enough to send any parent into hysterics. I can't think of anything more frightening. So let me be clear. I am not suggesting that the threat of harm or death to my child or any child is not something to fear. What I am suggesting is that we RATIONALLY assess the threat and then assess our fear level to see if it is appropriate. Good decisions, decisions that minimize threat and maximize safety, are NOT based on irrational fear. Fear is our worst enemy. Logical interpretation of available facts is our best ally.

Here is what we need to know before we can make a decision about an appropriate fear level associated with risk of death from H1N1. First we need to know how many deaths have been caused by H1N1 in any given population. The next question to ask is whether or not those who have died had underlying illnesses that made them more susceptible or more at risk. In other words we need to know how many of the deaths ASSOCIATED with H1N1 are actually CAUSED by H1N1.

To assess the absolute risk of dying from H1N1 we need to divide the number of deaths in any given population by the number of people in that given population. In Canada as of Oct 17, 2009 there had been a total of 1,604 hospitalizations, and 83 deaths associated with H1N1. By the way by this time H1N1 was already being portrayed as a DEADLY PANDEMIC. So, out of a population of approximately 35 MILLION there were 83 deaths. This means your chance of dying of H1N1 up to this point was 83/35,000,000 which is one in 421,687. This means the chance of death from H1N1 was 0.0002%.

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